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Expert Expectations: Predicting January’s Inflation Rate in Buenos Aires

ByEditor

Feb 11, 2024
Lower sales in Argentina result in lower inflation in January compared to December

On Wednesday, 14th, INDEC is set to release inflation data for January. According to consultants, the rate for the month ranged between 20% and 23%. Despite this, the level remained below December’s (25.5%) with a slight deceleration in the third week of the month.

The City of Buenos Aires has already released its own inflation data for January. In Buenos Aires, there was a 21.7% increase in January – the highest since the start of statistical series in 2012. The interannual variation of the index amounted to 238.5%.

According to RocĂ­o Bisang, an economist from EcoGo consulting firm, her inflation estimate for January is at 21.2%. She believes that this month was marked by the drag left behind by December’s increases, which slowed down inflation slightly. Health and Transportation were areas where prices rose significantly due to prepaid bills and gasoline and train/bus increases respectively.

Economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina from Equilibra consulting firm expects preliminary data for January to be lower than December’s figure of 26%. He forecasts an inflation rate of 22.5% for January based on his analysis of market trends and consumer behavior patterns.

Ferreres & Asociados conducted a study based on over fifteen thousand prices of goods and services in GBA (Greater Buenos Aires area). Their findings suggest that January’s inflation rate will end close to 18%, with an annual growth rate of around 144%. Core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of about 19%, marking an increase of approximately 300% annually compared to last year’s figures.

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