The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is a tool used to forecast the direction of the economy. In October, it fell, indicating that a recession may be on the horizon. However, despite this decline, a recession has not yet occurred. Many economists have adjusted their forecasts in light of this data.
Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board believes that one reason we are not currently in a recession is due to strong consumer spending. While she still predicts a recession early next year, she expects it to be short because there has been no dramatic decline in manufacturing or the housing market.
U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics no longer predicts a recession for this month, but he still expects unemployment to increase and labor conditions to soften. He now believes a soft landing is more likely and is open to updating his forecast if economic data continues to surprise him.
As we navigate these economic changes, Marketplace remains committed to providing accurate and accessible news that keeps people informed. To continue doing so, we rely on financial support from our listeners. A small monthly donation will help keep Marketplace reporting on the news that matters most.