• Sun. Dec 3rd, 2023

Experts Refine Their Predictions for Economic Slowdown


Nov 21, 2023

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is a tool used to forecast the direction of the economy. In October, it fell, indicating that a recession may be on the horizon. However, despite this decline, a recession has not yet occurred. Many economists have adjusted their forecasts in light of this data.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board believes that one reason we are not currently in a recession is due to strong consumer spending. While she still predicts a recession early next year, she expects it to be short because there has been no dramatic decline in manufacturing or the housing market.

U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics no longer predicts a recession for this month, but he still expects unemployment to increase and labor conditions to soften. He now believes a soft landing is more likely and is open to updating his forecast if economic data continues to surprise him.

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