The 2024 Atlanta Braves are once again a strong contender, according to Dan Szymborski’s latest ZiPS projections. These projections were released at FanGraphs and showcase the Braves as a top team for the upcoming season.
Szymborski’s methodology for ZiPS involves using first- through 99th-percentile projections for each player to generate a generalized depth chart. He then makes adjustments based on his personal feelings and filters them through logic and reasoning. The result is a million versions of each team, calculated in Monte Carlo fashion.
While PECOTA and FanGraphs’ Playoff odds also show the Braves as strong favorites for the 2024 World Series, ZiPS offers a slightly more conservative outlook. The Braves are projected to win 95 games, have a 92.7% chance of making the playoffs, and a 17.4% chance of winning the World Series. They are also projected to be 10 games better than the Philadelphia Phillies. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Dodgers are projected for 93 wins and have a 13.9% chance to win the World Series.
Szymborski acknowledged that it’s hardly surprising that ZiPS favors the Braves given their success in previous seasons and their current roster. However, he stated that there are no scary contenders for the Braves in their division, reflecting their strength as a team.
Given the widespread endorsement of the Braves by various projection systems, it’s clear that they are viewed as a serious contender for